Mapping global land conversion pressure to support conservation planning

Study link: Nature Scientific Data (2024)

Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI).

The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. The study finds that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands.

The CPI solves a critical knowledge gap undermining our ability to achieve ambitious conservation goals efficiently and equitably, such as the commitments made by over 200 countries to conserve 30% of their lands and waters by 2030 (30 × 30) under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as climate goals established by the 196 signatories to the UN Paris Climate Agreement. The CPI can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under these agreements are optimized to avoid conflicting land use requirements.

Lead researcher: James Oakleaf, The Nature Conservancy (TNC)
Contributing researchers: Christina Kennedy (TNC), Nicholas Wolff (TNC), Drew Terasaki Hart (TNC), Peter Ellis (TNC), David Theobald (Conservation Planning Technologies), Brandie Fariss (TNC), Karl Burkart (One Earth), Joseph Kiesecker (TNC)